Who will replace Jensen Huang?
Nvidia's board is weighing the future of its founder. The company has never named a successor. Here is the field, ranked by what prediction markets are paying.
How we got here
Sunday, Nov. 8: The admission.
Huang admits to an extramarital affair with Alice Huang, whom U.S. intelligence suspects of ties to China. In an email to staff he says he is “committed to protecting Nvidia.”
Tuesday, Nov. 10: The shortlist.
Succession speculation spreads. Kress, Buck, Su and Haas are the most cited names.
Wednesday, Nov. 11: The second affair.
The New York Times reports a second affair, with health care VP Kimberly Powell. The board meets to discuss his removal; shares fall about 8% after hours.
Thursday, Nov. 12: The odds turn.
Polymarket puts Ian Buck narrowly ahead at 25%, with Kress at 22% and Huang staying at 18%.
Where things stand
Huang has run Nvidia for 33 years. About 60 executives report directly to him, and none has been named his deputy.
After the revelations of two affairs, one with a woman U.S. intelligence suspects of ties to China, the Nvidia board met Wednesday night to discuss his possible removal, according to the Wall Street Journal and the Times. Nvidia has lost nearly $1 trillion in market value since the first reports, Axios reported. An independent panel is investigating with the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, and Bloomberg reports the company has hired an outside firm to identify CEO candidates.
Seven outcomes, one chair.
Probabilities from Polymarket's "Who will be the next CEO of NVIDIA?" market as of 12:39 a.m. PT, Nov. 12.
Ian Buck: 25%
The engineer behind CUDA, the software layer that locked developers into Nvidia hardware. Markets rank him first.
Colette Kress: 22%
Nvidia’s most visible executive after Huang. She appears on every earnings call and is the first internal name analysts cite.
Jensen Huang stays: 18%
Nvidia has said Huang will keep his duties. He has said he hopes to serve another 20 years.
Rene Haas: 4%
A sitting chip-industry CEO who already knows Nvidia from the inside.
Jay Puri: 3%
Huang’s longtime lieutenant for sales and partnerships, the relationships behind Nvidia’s data center boom.
Lisa Su: 2%
The executive who turned AMD into Nvidia’s most credible AI chip challenger.
Madison Huang: 2%
Jensen Huang’s daughter, who works on Nvidia’s robotics and simulation platforms.
What to watch
The board has not announced a decision, and Nvidia says Huang will continue to lead the company. These are the next points at which that could change.
Nov. 17: Who will present the earnings?
Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results, with a 5 p.m. ET call. On past calls, CFO Colette Kress, whom The Information has named as a possible interim CEO, has delivered the prepared remarks. Huang usually doesn’t speak until the call opens for analyst questions. It will be the company’s first scheduled call since the revelations.
Dec. 1: The short bets get called.
On Kalshi, traders are betting on whether Huang is out as CEO by Dec. 1. As of Nov. 11, they put the chance at 80%.
Pending: The investigation.
Findings from the independent board panel and its counsel, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz.
Pending: The search.
A shortlist from the outside firm Nvidia hired to identify CEO candidates.
July 1, 2027: The long bets get called.
On Kalshi, traders put the chance Huang leaves before July 1, 2027, at 90%, as of Nov. 11.